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    Still optimistic about the development prospects of iron and steel

    TIME:2019-08-13CLICK:249FONT:LMS

    Considering the current situation of iron and steel development and related information, although the current demand for iron and steel has entered the peak plateau area, bearing mesh is still optimistic about the development prospects of iron and steel.

    Recently, Shi Hongwei, Director of the Research Center for Economic Development of Metallurgical Industry, delivered a keynote speech at the 2017 (6th) China Construction Steel Industry Chain High-end Forum. He pointed out that domestic steel demand has entered the peak plateau area, but overall the prospects are still good.

    Shi Hongwei begins with the main policy orientation of structural reform on the supply side of iron and steel industry.

    In fact, since the 21st century, China's crude steel production and consumption has gradually changed from less supply and more demand to more supply and less demand. By 2016, the difference between crude steel output and apparent consumption is about 100 million tons.

    In terms of price, in the past 20 years, China's steel prices have experienced a roller coaster-style shock. The highest point in history appeared in mid-2008, and began to enter the downward channel gradually after 2010. However, since the end of 2015, steel prices have rebounded from the bottom, and are still in an upward trend.

    In response, Shi Hongwei pointed out that there are many problems in the steel market itself, such as the lack of price elasticity in product demand, the huge excess capacity and the scattered industry, while the price of steel products is flexible, and the output and consumption have tended to stabilize or decline after experiencing the stage of rapid economic growth.

    From Shi Hongwei's point of view, the main policy orientation of structural reform on the supply side of China's iron and steel industry makes the market play a decisive role in resource allocation, and better play the role of the government, which has obvious effect on resolving the excess capacity of the iron and steel industry.

    He also pointed out that, first of all, the situation of serious overcapacity in the iron and steel industry has been significantly improved, especially the situation of serious overcapacity in long timber production has been fundamentally changed, and the utilization rate of production capacity has been significantly improved. Secondly, the situation of disorderly competition in the steel market has been effectively changed, and the phenomenon of "inferior currency drives out good currency" has been greatly improved in the long-timber market. Thirdly, the environmental protection level of iron and steel enterprises has been generally improved. Fourthly, the benefits of iron and steel enterprises have increased significantly.

    Shi Hongwei further analysis, macro environment, China's economic growth has declined, but because of the large base, GDP still maintains a high growth level of 4-5 trillion yuan per year. However, its internal structure has changed considerably, the proportion of tertiary industry has been rising, and GDP growth rate has been higher than that of industry in recent years. Industrial value added, but in 2017, the two are basically the same.

    Based on macro and basic considerations, Shi Hongwei pointed out that the supply-side reform should be implemented simultaneously with the demand-side reform in the future market, and expected that the steel market demand in 2017 would be generally stable. In terms of market segmentation, construction steel would be stable under the support of infrastructure, while manufacturing steel would be increased. In the long run, Shi Hongwei pointed out that attention should be paid to the pull of "Made in China 2025" on steel demand and the new opportunities brought to the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry.

    Shi Hongwei said that China's structural reform on the supply side of the iron and steel industry should be regarded as a long-term policy. Given the current market situation, the policy may last for as long as 10 years. However, he also expressed optimism, "China's steel demand has entered the peak plateau area, and the future prospects are still good."


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